So what do I see in my small business crystal ball? (See how I did in 2015 with my predictions)
Besides the new Star Wars Movie hitting a record for sales in the first weekend, this is what I predict will affect small business in 2016.
1. The stock market will be level or slightly sink lower.
2. U.S. GDP growth will be 2.5% or less.
3. The Fed will not raise interest rates again. Borrowing will still be cheap.
4. Loans will be much easier for small business owners to get as long as they personal credit above 700. This is a result of the alternative funding sources online competition directly with banks and traditional loan rates being so low.
5. The presidential election will be between Marco Rubio and Hilary Clinton. Donald Trump will not run as an independent. A winner is too close to call.
6. Enrollments in the Affordable Care Act will stagnate because of high increases in premiums with higher deductibles. Many small businesses still will not seek health insurance for their employees and risk paying the penalty.
7. Natural language interfaces without keyboards and mice (think Siri, Alexa and Cortana) will increasingly be the only way to communicate with new devices.
8. The JOBS Act: Title III will finally arrive for small business. This means any entrepreneur can raise money from non-accredited investors on the web.
9. Location marketing will add mobile beacons everywhere for retailers. This will shoot promotional messages via Bluetooth to opted in users.
10. The job market will remain tight for outstanding employees. Small business owners will be forced to either pay signing bonuses or use a series of more highly paid freelancers.
Remember that while it will be a competitive year for small business owners, historically speaking, the economy is due for a recession the by 2017.
Happy New Year! Enjoy 2016.
What do you predict?
I have to give you a grade of ‘C’; comprehensive, conservative & concise. However markets do not always behave as expected. As you allude too, we are in our eighth year of an anemic recovery, volatility is high, usually a sign of a market top, China’s economy is faltering, Europe is stressed with immigrants and there is conflict and hot spots in many areas of the globe; oh! and lest I forget to mention, our federal deficit is twenty-trillion dollars and growing, The Federal Reserve is carrying six-trillion dollars in debt obligations and that doesn’t include State, local, personal debt and line items that are not included such as pension liability. With all of that facing us, I would say that we have better than a fifty-fifty chance of a deep and prolonged pull back in the market in the not too distant future.
Barry congrats on this one, you’re actually walking out on limbs, which makes your post much more interesting than most of the predictions summaries. And furthermore you’ve chosen real issues. Predicting the presidential race, even.
I would add the decline of advertising and rise of social media and content as an important trend. I think we’re going to hit a tipping point next year. People will finally realize that 1.) advertising just doesn’t work like it did for most of our lifetimes; and 2.) social media and content is going to take over but not in any simple way, not in a direct way. The winners will be the ones who understand that the new kind of marketing is making friends and offering real content without insisting on short-term measurable payoff. That’s going to be complicated by growing noise as big brands and big budgets pile naively into content. And we’re going to have to be increasingly skeptical to wade through all the self-serving content offered by people who intend to replace advertising with content. For all of us out there in small business, we’re going to need a lot of patience to stick with the new kind of marketing that is going to pay off in the long term, but won’t be immediately measurable. IMO.