This is the time of year that I always predict what will happen in 2019.  Let’s first take a look at my small business predictions for 2018: I had another bad year, making only 56% correct predictions. Here they were:

The stock market will flatten out as the anticipated tax law takes effect. It will remain stable at its current level for the year as the tax cuts for corporations temporarily juice the economy.Results: Stock Market 1/1/18 was 24,824 – now relatively flat; My prediction was correct.

GDP will continue to grow more year because of the tax cuts and then I predict it will begin to fall in 2019. Results: 2.3-4.2 so far this year; My prediction was correct.

Real estate prices will fall 5% to 10% especially in the geographies where the new tax law makes it less advantageous to own a home. This will especially true in urban real estate locations where property and local taxes are high. Results: Chicago rise +1 %, New Jersey +6%, California +6%; My prediction was wrong.

With the tax changes, small business will begin to relocate to states where local taxes and real estate prices are lower. Results: Top- Utah, Nevada, Idaho, Florida; My prediction was correct.

The Fed will raise interest rates once in 2018, but will see a weakness in the economy later in the year. Results: The Fed raised interest rates 3 times in 2018; My prediction was wrong.

One year ahead of the law change, small businesses will not offer health insurance to their employees believing they will not be fined by the federal government. Results: This has not happened. In fact, the Affordable Care Act has gained with voters and became an issue in the midterm elections. My prediction was wrong.

Every small business will have to learn about how to integrate artificial intelligence to improve the customer experience in marketing, sales and service. Results: AI is in everything! My prediction was correct.

Every small business will have to leverage marketplaces like Amazon, Walmart, and eBay as a sales channel in order to compete. Result: Despite an increase in fees across all these channels, small business continues to sell more through them. My prediction was correct.

Bitcoin prices will stabilize and show less volatility as professional traders start to get involved with this new market (and I still won’t be investing in them!) Results: Jan 1- $9318 now in Nov it’s $4026; My prediction was wrong.

For 2019, my vision for small business is very cloudy. I believe we are at the cusp of recession as we approach 2020. Government initiatives will stagnate as divided government freezes any big policy changes that are currently in place.

Here is how I see the year developing for small business.

  • Stock Market: will fall 15% this year as a result of Brexit, tariffs and the coming recession
  • Real Estate Prices: will fall 10% this year
  • Fed will raise interest rates once

Even though it’s very cloudy, here are the opportunities for small business

  • Trust will be your biggest competitive advantages. Businesses that focus on customer reviews and reputable content will win market share.
  • Hot technology will be foldable phones, your phone is your wallet, voice search and live video.

What do other small business experts think?

For small businesses that run online publishing businesses (including the two million publishers using Google AdSense), 2019 has the makings to be a great year for ad earnings. Ad rates are on fire according to the Ezoic Ad Revenue Index.  However, AdSense will continue to be challenging to master as program policies and ad technology grow in complexity.  So it will be important to put time and effort into experimenting with ad combos.  While the potential rewards for small business publishers will be greater, the challenges to achieve those rewards will also increase. – Anita Campbell, CEO and Founder, Small Business Trends

“2019 will be the year of the side hustle. As technology continues to disrupt industries and generate new possibilities, more people will start side businesses that they run from their homes. Whether it’s becoming a virtual assistant, creating PowerPoint presentations, or selling arts and crafts, people want extra income and to be in charge of their own destinies. Savvy marketers should figure out what this target market needs to help run better companies; I think sales of furniture, computers, cloud storage, security software and really comfortable chairs will increase in 2019” – Brian Moran, Small Business Edge

“With the tight job market, a growing number of small employers will offer health coverage, retirement benefits, and other perks (taking advantage of new cost-savers, such as association health plans)” –Barbara Weltman, President, Big Ideas for Small Business, Inc.

“IRL shopping will become entertainment – Instead of just blaming online retailers for poaching customers, brick and mortar retailers will finally see the silver lining – creating and selling real life experiences inside their stores while cross selling products online. Harness the power of Amazon, Ebay or Etsy as online distribution channels and make your store a customer attraction. Plus Business Activism as Branding. Today’s contentious political environment has created a marketing and messaging opportunity for small businesses. By simply taking a stand for your core beliefs — you can attract customers who are passionate about the same things.  Brands like Warby Parker and Bombas wear their commitment to those less fortunate on their marketing sleeve — you can do the same.”– Ivana Taylor, DIY Marketers

As the job market continues to tighten, in 2019, small business will embrace some of the latest in technology to fill the gap for the staff they cannot find for their business.  Whether it is AI chatbots to supplement customer service, cloud solutions that allow for more remote collaboration, self-service kiosks that remove in-store personnel or upgraded payment systems that better track customer and client invoicing and payment, tech will enable small business to scale their business without additional hiring.” –Carol Roth,Creator of the Future File legacy planning system and “recovering” investment banker

What are your small business predictions for 2019?