This is the time of the year that I make my predictions of what will happen in small business in 2020.

My predictions for 2019 were wrong on all three major economic trends.

I thought the following would happen:

  1. The Stock Market: will fall 15% this year as a result of Brexit, tariffs and the coming recession. The market increase in value by over 20%. I was really wrong.
  2. Home Real Estate Prices: will fall 10% this year. Home prices increased by 3%. I was dead wrong.
  3. The Fed will raise interest rates once. As a result of intense political pressure, interest rates were cut three times in 2019. I was exceptionally wrong.

While I still believe we are on the cusp of a recession, signals are mixed. GDP slowly shrinking. Unemployment is fairly steady. However, some sectors are shrinking like manufacturing and there is an inverted yield curve that usual signals a recession. Trade tariffs are hitting sectors unequally and their future is at the very least, unpredictable.

On the broader trends in small business, my 2019 predictions were more successful:

  1. Trust will be your biggest competitive advantages. Businesses that focus on customer reviews and reputable content will win market share. Customer experience is the only thing now differentiating companies when consumers have a choice. I was correct.
  2. Hot technology will be foldable phones, your phone is your wallet, voice search and live video. Foldable phone made their debut in 2019. Voice search and live video continue to be the “it thing” in the coming year as well. I was correct.

For 2020, there is even more unpredictability. Every daily tweet from the President can drastically change the economic direction of the country.

Unless they totally ignore this, small business owners have a hard time planning for the future based on economic data. As of this time, which tariffs will remain in 2020 is unknown. The country is in its 11th year of economic prosperity. (These periods usually last for 6- 7 years).

It seems to me that the entire country is waiting for the “other shoe to drop” with this now being the longest stretch of economic expansion in U.S History.

Add to that, an impeachment trial pending in January and presidential/ congressional elections in November. Lots of things could go wrong! (I am hopeful that the Olympics will give us a break.)

Here are my predictions for 2020:

  1. The stock market will fall 5%. Not enough to scare people but the bull market is now over in this new decade.
  2. The Fed will not touch interest rates in 2020 for fear of political fallout.
  3. The real estate market will fall by 5%. Fewer buyers will drop prices in major urban cities.

My small business predictions for 2020:

  1. Artificial intelligence (AI) will analyze your data too. Bots will now look your company data and give you recommendations on actions to take next. This will allow small business owners actually to use the data in their company.
  2. Marketplace dominance. Small business owners will need to go where the customers are. If you sell a product and you are not already on Amazon, Walmart, Alibaba, Etsy or eBay- get there!
  3. Startups need to niche down. While the big mega corporations will dominate, there is still opportunity in very targeted and specific areas. Don’t be afraid to go narrow.

What are you 2020 predictions for small business owners?