This is the time of year that I always predict what will happen in 2018. My small business predictions last year were only 50% right (a pretty lousy record).

For 2018, my vision remains cloudy given the new tax changes, the extended stretch of this economic expansion and the unpredictable nature of the current President. But these are my small business predictions:

  • The stock market will flatten out as the anticipated tax law takes effect. It will remain stable at its current level for the year as the tax cuts for corporations temporarily juice the economy.
  • GDP will continue to grow one more year because of the tax cuts and then I predict it will begin to fall in 2019.
  • Real estate prices will fall 5% to 10% especially in the geographies where the new tax law makes it less advantageous to own a home. This will especially true in urban real estate locations where property and local taxes are high.
  • With the tax changes, small business will begin to relocate to states where local taxes and real estate prices are lower.
  • The Fed will raise interest rates once in 2018, but will see a weakness in the economy later in the year.
  • One year ahead of the law change, small businesses will not offer health insurance to their employees believing they will not be fined by the federal government.
  • Every small business will have to learn about how to integrate artificial intelligence to improve the customer experience in marketing, sales and service.
  • Every small business will have to leverage marketplaces like Amazon, Walmart, and eBay as a sales channel in order to compete.
  • Bitcoin prices will stabilize and show less volatility as professional traders start to get involved with this new market (and I still won’t be investing in them!)

What are your small business predictions for 2018?